Market Update For the week of June 25, 2018

Market Update For the week of June 25, 2018

Mary Shields from Shields Group post her weekly Market Update.  This is great a great informational recap for the week.

 Market Update

QUOTATION OF THE WEEK..."When my mother had to get dinner for 8, she'd just make enough for 16 and only serve half." --Gracie Allen, American comedian

INFO THAT HITS US WHERE WE LIVE... Home builder activity took off in May: Housing Starts spiked 5.0%, to a 1.350 million unit annual rate, the highest in more than a decade. Building Permits dipped, but are 8.0% ahead of a year ago.

Builders are finishing units at the fastest pace since the recession, freeing them to start new construction. Rising lumber costs lowered the National Association of Home Builders sentiment index, but it's still a very high 68.

Existing Home Sales slipped 0.4% in May, to 5.43 million units annuallyBut First American's model estimates the potential for existing home sales is currently at a seasonally adjusted 6.11 million annual rate.

BUSINESS TIP OF THE WEEK... If you want to grow your business faster, make following up leads your top priority. And when leads are referrals, be sure to thank the sources and keep them abreast of where things stand. 

>> Review of Last Week

TENSE OVER TRADE... Trade tensions kept buyers on the sidelines, so the three major stock indexes went south for the week. The concern is that a possible trade war could spike inflation and slow global economic growth. 

But the first $50 billion in tariffs on Chinese imports have yet to go into effect, the additional $200 billion announced will go through a review process too, and analysts doubt the U.S. will enact all proposed tariffs.

Plus, economic fundamentals are strong. Low unemployment and high consumer confidence push household spending, which is more than two-thirds of our economy, while tax cuts, government spending and business investment provide support against trade challenges.

The week ended with the Dow down 2.0%, to 24581; the S&P 500 down 0.9%, to 2755; and the Nasdaq down 0.7%, to 7693.

It was a quiet week in bonds, Treasuries modestly lower, other bonds modestly up. The 30YR FNMA 4.0% bond ended UP .09, to $101.73. The national average 30-year fixed mortgage rate fell in Freddie Mac's latest Primary Mortgage Market Survey, dropping now three of the last four weeks. Remember, mortgage rates can be extremely volatile, so check with your mortgage professional for up-to-the-minute information.

DID YOU KNOW?...'s chief economist reports, "in spite of ongoing record-low inventories in the housing market, we know that 557,000 new listings hit the market in May, the highest number since summer 2015."

>> This Week's Forecast

NEW AND PENDING HOME SALES GROW, ALONG WITH EVERYTHING ELSE... May New Home Sales should be up, like the Pending Home Sales index of contracts signed on existing homes. Other key parts of the economy predicted to rise include Q1 GDP, May Personal Spending and June Chicago PMI,measuring Midwest factory activity. Core PCE Prices are also forecast up, but gains in Personal Incomeshould cover that.

>> The Week's Economic Indicator Calendar

Weaker than expected economic data tends to send bond prices up and interest rates down, while positive data points to lower bond prices and rising loan rates.

Economic Calendar for the Week of Jun 25 - Jun 29

DateTime (ET)ReleaseForConsensusPriorImpact
Jun 25
10:00New Home SalesMay666K662KModerate
Jun 26
10:00Consumer ConfidenceJun127.1128.0Moderate
Jun 27
08:30Durable Goods OrdersMay-1.0%%-1.7%Moderate
Jun 27
08:30Durable Goods Orders - ex transportationMay0,4%0.9%Moderate
Jun 27
10:00Pending Home SalesMay0.8%-1.3%Moderate
Jun 27
10:30Crude Inventories06/23NA-5.9MModerate
Jun 28
08:30Initial Unemployment Claims06/23220K218KModerate
Jun 28
08:30Continuing Unemployment Claims06/16NA1.723MModerate
Jun 28
08:30GDP - 3rd EstimateQ12.2%2.2%HIGH
Jun 29
08:30Personal IncomeMay0.4%0.3%Moderate
Jun 29
08:30Personal SpendingMay0.4%0.6%HIGH
Jun 29
08:30Core PCE PricesMay0.2%0.2%HIGH
Jun 29
09:45Chicago PMIJun61.062.7HIGH
Jun 29
10:00U. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment - FinalJun99.099.3Moderate

>> Federal Reserve Watch

Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months... The Fed Funds futures market sees no rate hike in August, then one in September but none in November. Note: In the lower chart, a 0% probability of change is a 100% certainty the rate will stay the same.

Current Fed Funds Rate: 1.75%-2.00%

After FOMC meeting on:Consensus
Aug   11.75%-2.00%
Sep 262.00%-2.25%
Nov   82.00%-2.25%

Probability of change from current policy:

After FOMC meeting on:Consensus
Aug   1           0%
Sep 26         71%
Nov   8         32%

This e-mail is an advertisement for Mary Shields. The material provided is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment and/or mortgage advice, or a commitment to lend. Although the material is deemed to be accurate and reliable, there is no guarantee of its accuracy. The material contained in this message is the property of Evergreen Home Loans Shields Group and cannot be reproduced for any use without prior written consent. This message is intended for business professionals only and is not intended for distribution to consumers or other third parties. The material does not represent the opinion of Evergreen Home Loans Shields Group. © 2018 Evergreen Home Loans is a registered trade name of Evergreen Moneysource Mortgage Company® NMLS ID 3182. Trade/service marks are the property of Evergreen Home Loans. All rights reserved. Licensed under: Alaska Mortgage Broker/Lender License AK3182 and AK3182-1; Arizona Mortgage Banker License 0910074; California Licensed by Department of Business Oversight under the California Residential Mortgage Lending Act License 4130291; Idaho Mortgage Broker/Lender License MBL-3134; Nevada Mortgage Banker License 3130; Oregon Mortgage Lending License ML-3213; Washington Consumer Loan Company License CL-3182.

Susan Bermudez Headshot
Phone: 480-205-2005
Dated: June 25th 2018
Views: 23
About Susan: Originally from Arizona, I moved to Oregon 4 years ago with my family. My husband has been with Ford...

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